Air Force General Sergei Surovikin has been appointed by the Russian Ministry of Defence as the overall commander of Russian invasion forces in Ukraine.

Russia's Defence Ministry on Saturday named Air Force General Sergei Surovikin, the commander of the Russian Air and Space Forces, as the overall commander of Russian invasion forces in Ukraine. The new overall field commander of Russia's war in Ukraine is Gen. Surovikin. Not a nice chap, but not an incompetent, neither. Can’t say he’s having a great start to his new role, though! For more on this thug, see me earlier @SpecCoffeeHouse piece:https://t.co/sg3LqTwlg1— Mark Galeotti (@MarkGaleotti) October 8, 2022 Since 2017, Surovikin has led Russia's Aerospace Forces (a unified command of the Russian Air Force, Russian Air, and Missile Defence Forces, and Russian Space Forces established in 2015). According to the Russian MoD’s website, he commanded a Guards division stationed in Chechnya in 2004, during Moscow's war against Islamist rebels, and was awarded a medal for his service in Syria in 2017. At the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he was the commander of Army Group South, making him perhaps the only Russian commander in the war that could boast some more lasting successes. Independent Russian media have reported that Surovkin is a close military adviser to Putin and was the originator of the idea to target key civilian technical infrastructure in Ukraine. The Russian ministry did not say who, if anyone, Surovikin was replacing, but back in April British military intelligence said that General Alexander Dvornikov had been appointed to take charge of Russian forces in Ukraine. Surovikin’s appointment is the third senior military appointment made by Moscow in the space of a week. The day before, on October 7, Colonel-General Alexander Chaiko, the commander of the Eastern Military District, was sacked. Although the District is located in the Russian Far East, the bulk of its forces have been deployed to Ukraine, and their performance is the likeliest reason for Chaiko’s dismissal. Chaiko will reportedly be replaced by Lieutenant-General Rustam Muradov, who previously served in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine and commanded Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. Earlier in the week, on Monday, October 3, the Western Military District commander Colonel-General Alexander Zhuravlyov had been replaced following the rapid advances of the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the east of the country, which culminated in the Russian occupiers losing their grip on the strategic transport hub of Lyman. These are just the latest in the slew of dismissals and replacements in Russian command, as the situation on the frontline gets increasingly more embarrassing for the Kremlin. In September, the deputy defence minister in charge of logistics, General Dmitry Bulgakov, was replaced by Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev. And in August, after a series of humiliations including the sinking of its lead warship and the loss of eight warplanes in an attack on a Russian base in Crimea, the commander of the Black Sea Fleet Admiral Igor Osipov was replaced by Vice Admiral Viktor Sokolov. Purge or power struggle? It is perhaps only fitting that the overall command should go to the head of the Air and Space Forces, considering the cosmic scale of the drubbing that the Russian invaders are receiving from the Ukrainians at the moment. And the large number of dismissals and replacements shows that perhaps the Kremlin is slowly catching on to the notion, that incompetent yes-men do not make the best choices as top-level commanders. The question is, is there anyone in the Russian top brass who is capable of successfully commanding the army after the bulk of its professional force had been wiped out and replaced by drafted conscripts being sent into combat with little to no refreshing training? If they can be equipped with even the most rudimentary of equipment at all, that is. The other question is, what to do with those that are blamed for the failures of the Russian forces so far? According to the Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR), a “large number of arrests” have been made among the top military officials on Saturday. The measures that are currently being reportedly introduced is that the traffic in the centre of Moscow has been blocked and that the “elite” Felix Dzerzhinsky Motorised Guards Division of the Rosgvardiya (Russian National Guard) has dispatched to the city, assisted by the civilian police force. It is important to note that Rosgvardiya is an internal military police force reporting directly to Putin under his powers as Supreme Commander-in-Chief and Chairman of the Security Council, and not a part of the Armed Forces or under the control of the Ministry of Defence. There are reports of arrests being made, but the figures are not specified. All military units stationed around Moscow have been brought into increased combat readiness. HUR has been quoted by the Ukrainian media as the source, with the caveat that none of this information has yet been confirmed by independent Russian media.

The new overall field commander of Russia's war in Ukraine is Gen. Surovikin. Not a nice chap, but not an incompetent, neither. Can’t say he’s having a great start to his new role, though! For more on this thug, see me earlier @SpecCoffeeHouse piece:https://t.co/sg3LqTwlg1

The purported arrests are happening on the same day that the Crimean Bridge across the Kerch strait has been damaged in a massive explosion of a truck allegedly carrying explosive materials. This is a massive blow to Russian prestige, as the Crimean Bridge was Putin’s pet project and vital for the resupply of Russian forces on the peninsula and its mainland backcountry that Russia has occupied since February 2022. The strike on the bridge would be a massive propaganda and morale boost for the Ukrainians, but the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) refused to comment on their involvement, announcing that they will wait with it until the war is over. “We do not comment on this. We will comment on the role of the SBU or any government body of Ukraine in ‘bavovna’ [explosions] after our final victory," said SBU spokesman Artem Dekhtarenko. And Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, posted a tweet indicating that the whole thing might be an expression of a struggle between the Ministry of Defence and the Federal Security Service (FSB), the latter also possibly enjoying the support of private military companies, such as the Wagner Group. Now seriously. FSB/PMC try to eliminate leadership of Defense Ministry/GHQ. Before personnel change, FSB is in knockdown — missed Putin's bridge explosion. Defense Ministry can now blame FSB for the future South loss. Isn’t it obvious who made an explosion? Truck arrived from RF.— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) October 8, 2022 Ukrainska Pravda daily quoted the presidential adviser explaining his reasoning in greater depth: “We are undoubtedly witnessing the beginning of large-scale negative processes in Russia. Control among the security forces has fallen sharply, serious conflicts have broken out amongst the Russian special services, everyone is looking for people to blame for the military defeats, and they want to reform Mr Putin's inner circle and take other positions.” “Or to arrest certain generals,” adds Podolyak. According to all indications, the truck that exploded drove onto the bridge from the Russian side. Podolyak also believes the logistics of the detonation, synchronisation with the fuel train, and the volume of road surface destroyed required a massive co-ordination effort and good intelligence. Perhaps somewhat counterintuitively, Podolyak blames the MoD for the sabotage: “The explosion on the bridge - a personal project of Putin’s - not only undermines the positions of the FSB, who allowed this to happen; it also gives the military an excuse for its systematic defeats in the south of Ukraine. They’re saying it’s because of failures by the FSB that all the logistics relating to rear support and the supply of reserves have collapsed,” insists Podolyak. If the situation indeed looks the way Podolyak explains it and the arrests of military officials in Moscow are confirmed, perhaps the military went too far in their attempt to embarrass FSB and was found out. Or perhaps it is a Ukrainian operation after all, and Podolyak’s publicly voiced speculations are merely intended to make Putin even more paranoid and prompt him to start a purge among his cronies. If the latter is the case, SBU will not tell us so before the end of the war.

Now seriously. FSB/PMC try to eliminate leadership of Defense Ministry/GHQ. Before personnel change, FSB is in knockdown — missed Putin's bridge explosion. Defense Ministry can now blame FSB for the future South loss. Isn’t it obvious who made an explosion? Truck arrived from RF.

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